Tuesday, September 04, 2012

GENERAL MOTORS: SUCCESSION

 An IPO in the pipeline means that the US government could be well on its way to make a swift exit from running GM. This portends positive tidings for GM, which is recovering on the numbers. But a far more daunting challenge is looming up on the horizon. By Pawan Chabra

The company has also said in its S-1 filing sent to B&E, “Operating in a large number of different regions and countries exposes us to political, economic, and other risks as well as multiple foreign regulatory requirements.” There is no denying that the strategy of dumping brands like Pontiac, Saturn, Saab and Hummer has fetched success to the company in no time. While the IHS Global Insight research report forecasts global vehicle sales to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% from 2009 to 2015, GM has returned to profits even after the vehicle sales are running about 25% below the recent historical trends. In fact, it is expected that when the consumer sentiment improves further, the auto major will scale new heights in the coming times. Similarly, the rating agency, Moody’s has remarked in its global automotive outlook update, “Compared to where the industry was a year ago, when General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Corp. were in the throes of bankruptcy protection, and when many economies were still in recession, the turnaround in volume sales, demand, and to a lesser extent in pricing, has been faster than we anticipated.”

But the challenges that GM faces today is even beyond getting its IPO right on the bourses. Ensuring a sustainable sales performance will be a relatively easier task with the launching of fuel-efficient and competitively priced models; but the larger problem of succession planning is what could be a much more daunting concern in the coming time. The appointment of Dan Akerson on September 1, 2010 got the fourth CEO for GM on board in the past 18 months (see table). Akerson has taken control to ensure a smooth comeback of the company from Ed Whitacre Jr., a former telecom executive despite the fact that the telecom executive turned PE expert has never run a heavy-industrial company in his career so far (forget about one of the size GM’s operations).

The major problem that GM has been through is to find a suitable leader to run GM successfully. Whitacre was selected by the US Treasury, and apparently wasn’t planning to be there for the long term. So it was decided that the company should pitch a more stable leader before the IPO. Even auto czar Steven Rattner, who led the Treasury Department’s auto task force, has written a book ‘Overhaul: An insider’s Account of the Obama Administration’s Rescue of the Auto Industry’; mentioning the difficulty of finding someone to manage the world’s largest automaker.

For the ones who haven’t heard about Rattner’s role in the scheme of things that often, he was the one who went through, among other things, the daunting task of finding GM’s next CEO; a job that was rejected by the likes of Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn. Rattner fired Rick Wagoner as the Chairman and CEO of GM, and promoted Henderson as his replacement and eventually appointed Whitacre as the Chairman & CEO of the auto major. However, after Whitacre’s unexpected exit in August, Rattner was pushed again in a tight spot. And as finding an outsider would have taken much more time with the IPO development looming, Rattner decided to go with Akerson as he was one of the most promising names on the board of the company. In the book to be published on October 14, Rattner points out that Akerson himself had declined the offer of being the CEO of GM twice (as he neither wanted to leave his PE job at the Carlyle Group nor move to Detroit); before he finally opted to take up the role. GM may be back to learning the ways of the market, but it’s hard to say that all is well with a hesitant General at the helm, and little view on the leadership. Where in heavens is Plan B?


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