You’ve written extensively about machine intelligence moving well beyond human intelligence. Are we on track?
The road map from the semiconductor industry foresees 4-nanometer features and chips, which would enable us to simulate all the regions of the human brain for about $1,000. This exponential growth will ultimately be quite transformative. There’s been so much progress in getting self-organising, three-dimensional molecular circuits to work. We also have nanotube-based memory from Nantero due to hit the market next year. On the software side, a number of new scanning technologies now enable us to see individual neural connections for the first time. Brain scanning really didn’t make significant progress in allowing us to reverse-engineer the human brain until just recently. We’re gaining the means of tracking individual signals in Neurons so we can simulate brain regions in increasingly precise ways.
What would be the benefit of these simulations?
I’ve projected 2029 as the year for having both the hardware and software to have computers that operate at human levels. At that time, the hardware will be powerful enough for surpassing human intelligence. Look at your humble $1,000 PC today. It’s greatly superior to human intelligence in some ways. It can remember billions of things, while we’re hard pressed to remember half our phone numbers. Most importantly, machines can share their knowledge at great speeds. So achieving basic human intelligence with our machines and combining that with the superior benefits of machine intelligence will let us perform feats that go far beyond what we can physically do.
How close will we get to our machines?
They’ll go inside our clothing and inside our bodies and brains. We’ll be putting blood-cell-size devices, nanobots, inside our bloodstream to keep us healthy from inside. If that sounds fantastically futuristic, let me point out that we’re already doing this with animal experiments. One scientist actually cured type-1 diabetes in rats (using blood-cell-size devices). The University of Rochester and MIT have succeeded in selectively identifying and destroying cancer cells using blood-cell-size devices. I believe in 10 or 15 years we’ll overcome all the major diseases that kill 95% of us. How will the World Wide Web change over the next 10-20 years?
We’re going to move toward a worldwide mesh concept, where rather than our devices being spokes into a network, they’re going to be nodes on the network. They’ll be very tiny, and there will be millions of nodes inside our bodies, inside our clothes, inside the environment. It will be a cloud of both computation and communication resources, so if you need a million computers for 500 milliseconds that will be instantly organised for you. They’ll keep us healthy from inside and interact directly with our biological neurons to enhance our intelligence.
How will we defend against tiny biological or robotic devices?
Probably in 6-7 years, we’ll have a rapid response system. I think that spending the money would be a worthwhile investment.
For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
The road map from the semiconductor industry foresees 4-nanometer features and chips, which would enable us to simulate all the regions of the human brain for about $1,000. This exponential growth will ultimately be quite transformative. There’s been so much progress in getting self-organising, three-dimensional molecular circuits to work. We also have nanotube-based memory from Nantero due to hit the market next year. On the software side, a number of new scanning technologies now enable us to see individual neural connections for the first time. Brain scanning really didn’t make significant progress in allowing us to reverse-engineer the human brain until just recently. We’re gaining the means of tracking individual signals in Neurons so we can simulate brain regions in increasingly precise ways.
What would be the benefit of these simulations?
I’ve projected 2029 as the year for having both the hardware and software to have computers that operate at human levels. At that time, the hardware will be powerful enough for surpassing human intelligence. Look at your humble $1,000 PC today. It’s greatly superior to human intelligence in some ways. It can remember billions of things, while we’re hard pressed to remember half our phone numbers. Most importantly, machines can share their knowledge at great speeds. So achieving basic human intelligence with our machines and combining that with the superior benefits of machine intelligence will let us perform feats that go far beyond what we can physically do.
How close will we get to our machines?
They’ll go inside our clothing and inside our bodies and brains. We’ll be putting blood-cell-size devices, nanobots, inside our bloodstream to keep us healthy from inside. If that sounds fantastically futuristic, let me point out that we’re already doing this with animal experiments. One scientist actually cured type-1 diabetes in rats (using blood-cell-size devices). The University of Rochester and MIT have succeeded in selectively identifying and destroying cancer cells using blood-cell-size devices. I believe in 10 or 15 years we’ll overcome all the major diseases that kill 95% of us. How will the World Wide Web change over the next 10-20 years?
We’re going to move toward a worldwide mesh concept, where rather than our devices being spokes into a network, they’re going to be nodes on the network. They’ll be very tiny, and there will be millions of nodes inside our bodies, inside our clothes, inside the environment. It will be a cloud of both computation and communication resources, so if you need a million computers for 500 milliseconds that will be instantly organised for you. They’ll keep us healthy from inside and interact directly with our biological neurons to enhance our intelligence.
How will we defend against tiny biological or robotic devices?
Probably in 6-7 years, we’ll have a rapid response system. I think that spending the money would be a worthwhile investment.
For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
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